Table 3 |
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|
Projections of the nursing workforce in the public and mission health sectors in 2010, based on findings in 2005 |
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|
Scenario mid-2010 based on 2004 estimates* |
ART scale-up |
...plus reduced emigration |
...plus increased foreign recruitment |
...plus doubled training output |
All measures combined |
|
|
|
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|
Total nurses in the public and mission sectors by mid 2010 |
426 |
474 |
734 |
618 |
538 |
974 |
|
Total inflow |
560 |
480 |
480 |
660 |
560 |
740 |
|
Training output |
560 |
480 |
480 |
480 |
560 |
560 |
|
Immigration |
0 |
0 |
0 |
180 |
0 |
180 |
|
Total outflow |
937 |
764 |
504 |
800 |
780 |
524 |
|
Normal retirement¶ |
82 |
77 |
87 |
84 |
75 |
95 |
|
Retirement/death due to AIDS§ |
155 |
87 |
122 |
117 |
105 |
134 |
|
Emigration |
700 |
600 |
295 |
600 |
600 |
295 |
|
Total loss between 2004 and 2010 |
377 |
284 |
24 |
140 |
220 |
-216 |
|
|
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|
* Column taken from Table 2 (under the 2004 assumption that no HRH measures are taken) ¶ Rate calculated at 2% § Based on the assumption of 42% HIV prevalence; 10% of HIV+ people have AIDS and need ART; one third of those in need are put on ART (i.e. the current rate of ART scale-up) |
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|
Kober and Van Damme Human Resources for Health 2006 4:13 doi:10.1186/1478-4491-4-13 |
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