Figure 1.

Minimum changes in training enrolment, attrition, graduation, and public sector entry by 2010 that will achieve staffing targets for each cadre by 2018. *the increase in training enrolment is described as a multiplier of current training enrolment, i.e. 1× implies no change in enrolment, 2× implies a doubling of enrolment or 100% increase in enrolment, etc; please note that these multipliers were rounded up to the nearest integer. ¹ This assumes that the number of midwives trained each year remains at 2008 levels through 2018. ² This axis is the graduation rate multiplied by the public sector entry rate. This figure highlights the factor by which current training enrolment must increase by 2010 in order to reach staffing targets by 2018, for each change in attrition, graduation, and public sector entry that is achieved by 2010. The x-axis represents the percent enrolment into the public sector from training institutions (graduation rate multiplied by the public sector entry rate) and the y-axis represents percent attrition. A 1× means that training enrolment remains at current levels, while a 2× signifies the need for a doubling of current training enrolment, and so on. A bold box indicates the current rate of attrition, graduation, and public sector entry and the corresponding necessary increase in training enrolment if these other variables remained constant. For example, if 80% of graduating doctors entered the public sector, and attrition were 10% (both of which are close to current rates), then training enrolment would need to increase 13-fold in order to produce enough doctors to meet the targets set for 2018. If there were an increase in graduation and public sector entry and a reduction in attrition, the factor by which training enrolment would need to increase could be brought down as low as three.