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Open Access Research

The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce

Hideaki Takata*, Hiroshi Nagata, Hiroki Nogawa and Hiroshi Tanaka

Human Resources for Health 2011, 9:14  doi:10.1186/1478-4491-9-14

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Some contributions from Spain

MIGUEL �� GARC��A-P��REZ   (2011-06-13 11:51)  CESM (Spanish Confederation of Physicians' Unions) email

Dear authors:

I've read with interest your article, on a subject I've been studying in Spain. Problems appear similar to our ones, and so do possible mistakes.

I miss data about physicians' activity in your report. In our country, the global number of physicians will grow for fifteen years; nevertheless, massive retirement will atenuate this growth, and the number of active physicians will probably decay before that period.

We got that our medical student quota increased five years ago, but we advised that measure were provisional, in order to avoid future surpluses. Now, after a 120% increase in quota, we are advising against opening of new Schools of Medicine, and preparing a recommendation on quota reduction from 2018-2020 onwards, in order to get a steady ratio of physicians.

Competing interests

As a member of a physicians' union, I'm interested in getting an appropiate ratio of physicians, in order to provide a quality health care without overloads and without doctors' unemployment.

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